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President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua seems destined to win reelection in November, according to the latest national poll conducted by M&R Consultores, published by Nicaragua’s Nuevo Diario on Monday.
According to the poll, Ortega, who has held the presidency since 2007, has the support of 66.7 percent of likely voters. As such, Ortega is running essentially unchallenged, according to the poll: he is most closely followed by possible opposition candidate, Fabio Gadea, who has the support of only 14 percent of likely voters, according to the poll. Gadea lost to Ortega in the 2011 general elections.
Nicaragua’s 2016 general elections will be held on November 6th.
The President of Nicaragua is elected for a five-year term using a modified two-round system; a run-off will be held if no candidate receives more than 40 percent of the vote, or if no candidate receives over 35 percent of the note and has a 5 percent lead over their nearest challenger.
As such, Ortega is set for a nearly uncontested victory, according to the poll.
In January 2014, the National Assembly, dominated by Ortega’s ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), approved constitutional amendments that abolished term limits for the presidency and allowed a president to run for an unlimited number of five-year terms.
Meanwhile, The FSLN itself also appears set for an easy victory in the November general elections.
According to the poll, 65.4 percent of likely voters expressed their support of the FSLN, while another 20.6 percent did not want to express their preference.
5.4 percent of likely voters expressed their support for the main opposition party, the Independent Liberal Party (PLI), while 5.3 percent said they support the opposition Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC).
The 90 elected members of the National Assembly are elected by two methods; 20 members will be elected from a single nationwide constituency, whilst 70 members will be elected from 17 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 2 to 19 seats.
“In this coming election people will not vote for ideology but for the political force that is aligned with their needs,” M&R’s Raul Obregon told reporters, referring to social programs that have reduced poverty by 15 percent in the last nine years of the Sandinista government, according to official figures.
The poll was conducted between February 25th and March 6th amongst 1,991 likely voters from all 15 departments (provinces) of the country, as well as the two autonomous regions, and as a margin of error of 2.24 percent, according to the pollster.
